On Wednesday 28 August, Property Council hosted Christchurch Future Focus, an event that shone a spotlight on the dynamic shifts within Christchurch's population, offering data and trends for international and domestic migration patterns.
Speakers Sophie Jones, an Economic Analyst at ChristchurchNZ and Nick Brunsdon, Principal Economist and Lead Demographer at Infometrics, helped identify the hotspots for growth in population, business activity, and retail spending, and led the sell-out crowd to understand how these trends can impact the property sector.
A few key takeaways included:
- Construction, healthcare and manufacturing are the Canterbury region’s largest employers.
- Economic activity in Ōtautahi has remained flat, down on a per-capita basis and negative for Canterbury and New Zealand (-0.2%).
- The size of the labour force is now growing faster than new jobs are being added to the economy – in essence, there are more people than there are jobs.
- While business and consumer sentiment remain weak, Cantabrians and confident in their ability in managing disruption (perhaps unsurprisingly given the city’s history).
- Retail spending on ‘non-essentials’ remains subdued, with levels partly propped up by international visitor spending.
- Visitor activity has supported the accommodation sector over the past 12 months, with Christchurch recording the highest monthly occupancy in New Zealand from February to April.
- Canterbury is seen as an increasingly attractive location for students, with both the University of Canterbury and Lincoln University on track for another record year of enrolments. The focus now should be on how to retain these students in the region beyond graduation, as they could provide a much-needed youthful boost to the region’s workforce.
- Christchurch has benefited from the well-reported national surge in migration – estimated to have reached a record peak and to come down just as quickly. The population grew 2.1% last year and is expected to come back to a more pedestrian 1% this year.
- Population growth in Christchurch is projected to slow, with growth around 1% on average projected for next decade. Exceeding this projection over the long term is possible if we get significant levels of migration.
- While Christchurch lost its share of the population post-earthquakes, the city has been steadily regaining population since. More affordable housing, ease of transportation and a favourable perception of the region have helped fuel this recovery.
- Greater Christchurch’s strongest growth projected is for the 35-49 age group, and 70+. Baby boomers are in transition between 50-69 and 70+ groups
- Since 2018, the city has grown around one year older – so the median age has gone from 38 to 39. Tan areas have aged at an average rate, with orange areas ageing faster than average, and blue areas getting younger.
- The city is also growing more diverse, with over 30% growth in Asian, Pacific and Māori people.
- Like most of New Zealand, Christchurch has seen the average household and family size decrease since 2018.
- For families that have school age children, the average number of children has edged down from 1.4 to 1.3, projected to reach 1.1 in ten years. That means one-child families would be the overwhelming majority, with less than one in ten families having more than one child
- For overall household size, this is falling in many parts of the country, but Christchurch continues to have strong youthful migration and births, leading to a relatively stable average household size of 2.6.
Following Sophie and Nick’s presentations, we were joined by a panel of developers and industry experts, including Richard Peebles of Peebles Group (the developer behind Riverside Markets and 181 High Street, amongst others), Vincent Holloway of Brooksfield (who develop unique multi-unit and standalone homes) and Mike Blackburn from Blackburn Management (author of the Canterbury Construction Report and Co-founder of the Combined Building Supplies Cooperative).
Discussion was had about Christchurch’s ‘green shoots’; from Te Pae supporting the city’s off-peak activity to Te Kaha (aka One New Zealand Stadium) due to come online next year, to the realisation and collective surprise that the Crown’s original 100-day Blueprint for the city has nearly come to fruition. The conversation ranged from the need for more student accommodation to the decrease in consenting numbers and the highs and lows of gaining consent for less traditional or more complex projects.
If you missed it and would like to be part of the conversation next time, make sure you check out our upcoming Christchurch events:
Monday 23 September | Cathedral Square Update
Thursday 17 October | Christchurch Market Summit
Friday 1 November | South Island Property People Awards
Author
Kelly Taylor
Head of Communications, Property Council New Zealand
Originally joining Property Council as South Island Branch Manager, in 2015, Kelly is a boomerang employee, returning in the Member Communications role in 2017 before being promoted to Head of Communications. Fast forward a few years and not much has changed – here she is, telling people’s stories – specifically, the story of New Zealand’s largest industry, property.
Ruthlessly efficient, Kelly has a natural inclination for strategic planning and a gift for project management, attributes that have served her well in her current leadership role. She takes the complex and makes it simple, opens doors for member engagement and positions us as approachable, credible and influential.
Based in Ōtautahi Christchurch, Kelly loves telling our members’ stories and has relished the opportunity to wordsmith Property Council’s purpose, redefine our brand and take our communications to new heights.