What Will Shape NZ’s Housing Market Over the Next Decade?

The Residential Development Summit 2026 at the NZICC brought together industry leaders from construction, banking, and real estate for a session to explore what will shape a thriving residential market over the next decade.

With over 350 professionals in attendance, the day offered a rare opportunity to hear on-the-ground insights, emerging trends, and sector predictions that often go missing from public conversations.

Construction Insights: Lifestyle, BTR, and Diversified Stock

Dan Bosher from Icon Co shared a contractor’s perspective, highlighting the need for lifestyle-driven developments. “It’s about living, not just the product,” he noted, emphasising the growing importance of models like Build-to-Rent (BTR) schemes and student accommodation.

Bosher stressed the value of diversifying housing stock to create a more resilient market:

“There’s an oversupply of the wrong stuff. Diversifying stock makes us more feasible and resilient.”

Comparing markets, he noted that Australia benefits from scale and consistency, while New Zealand’s approach is more “yo-yo.” Despite this, local industry talent remains highly sought after.

Banking Perspective: Collaboration and Strategic Financing

Darren Comber of BNZ discussed the banking sector’s view, acknowledging recent productivity gains in the high-end market before global events created uncertainty. Business confidence in Auckland and perceptions of wealth tied to house prices remain key market drivers.

Banks are increasingly exploring innovative approaches, with interest in partnering with social housing providers and structuring loans dynamically. Comber highlighted that while some areas face over supply, demand persists in well-located developments with strong amenities.

Real Estate Perspective: Responding to Demographics and Market Needs

From a real estate viewpoint, Suzie Wigglesworth of Bayleys Real Estate emphasised the importance of listening to the market and meeting the needs of end users. She highlighted trends in multi-generational living and the aging population’s influence on housing demand.

Markets such as Queenstown have outperformed due to international demand and worker accommodation needs, while Auckland still grapples with the “quarter-acre dream” versus higher-density developments. Wigglesworth cautioned against cookie-cutter townhouses that fail to meet diverse family needs, noting;

“The biggest risk is not listening to what people want.”

Student accommodation remains a pressing challenge, with shortages forcing some to commute long distances. Developers must consider typology, product mix, and local demand when planning new projects.

Key Takeaways

Planning, Diversification, and Listening to the Market

The overarching theme from this session is that a thriving residential market requires a balance of careful planning, diversification, and a lifestyle-focused approach. Listening to end users, adapting product offerings, and leveraging data to guide decisions are critical for resilience in a changing environment.

By embracing innovation across construction, finance, and real estate, New Zealand’s residential sector can navigate current pressures and build a foundation for sustainable growth over the next decade.

This article incorporates insights from the panel presentation Future Proofing The Residential Market at the Residential Development Summit 2026.