At this year’s Property Conference, Carl Davidson of The Curiosity Company delivered a thought-provoking presentation on the demographic and social changes transforming New Zealand. For the property sector, his message was clear: the forces reshaping our population are unprecedented, and the implications for the property sector are profound.
From sheep to people: a nation transformed
In 1982, New Zealand was home to three million people and 70 million sheep. Fast-forward forty years, and the numbers have flipped. Our human population now sits above 5.3 million, while sheep have declined to 25 million. This shift, quirky as it may sound, encapsulates a wider transformation.
What’s remarkable is not just the growth itself, but the speed. Demographers once predicted New Zealand would not hit five million until 2050. Instead, we reached that milestone during the first COVID lockdown in 2020. The primary driver? Immigration.
In the five years before COVID, migration accounted for half of our population growth – adding half a million people. Today, more than a quarter of New Zealanders were born overseas. Davidson noted that few countries have experienced such rapid change with so little social conflict. It has been, in the words of demographer Paul Spoonley, “one of the most dramatic demographic and social transitions seen anywhere.”
Hyper-ageing and the fertility implosion
Immigration isn’t the only story. Davidson highlighted two other forces reshaping our population: longevity and declining fertility.
New Zealanders are living far longer. A Pākehā woman born in 1920 could expect to live to 65. A baby girl born this year can expect to reach 92. People aged over 85 are now the fastest-growing age group in the country.
At the other end of the demographic pipeline, births are falling. In 2023, New Zealand’s total fertility rate was just 1.5 – well below the replacement level of 2.1. This “fertility implosion” mirrors trends across the OECD and is resistant to government intervention.
Together, hyper-ageing and low fertility signal that without immigration, New Zealand’s population would begin shrinking by the early 2040s. Davidson warned that depopulation is already a reality in countries like Japan, where adult diaper sales now exceed baby diapers.
Family, households, and workforce futures
Traditional family structures have shifted dramatically. Rising divorce rates, delayed parenthood, single-parent households, and increasing cultural diversity mean the nuclear family is no longer the norm. Many couples are choosing to remain child-free, and when children are born, it is later in life.
Household composition is changing just as quickly. Single-person households are on track to become the most common in New Zealand, with more than 400,000 people already living alone. For the property sector, this raises big questions about the types of housing and amenities future residents will demand.
Davidson also underlined the changing workforce. The Pākehā natural increase (births minus deaths) is projected to go negative within two decades, meaning future labour supply will increasingly depend on Māori, Pasifika, and migrant communities. In Christchurch, for example, the median age of Māori is just 24, compared with 37 for the general population – an indicator of the city’s future workforce profile.
A country of one big city
Geography adds another layer to these shifts. While many regional centres face stagnation or decline – some even risk becoming “zombie towns” – Auckland is booming. By 2033, Auckland is projected to reach two million residents, accounting for over half of the nation’s population growth between 2013 and 2043.
Davidson described Auckland as a “primate city” – a metropolis that dwarfs the rest of the country in size and influence. Already home to 34% of the population, Auckland’s pull is set to intensify. Its cultural mix also sets it apart: in 2018, nearly one in three Aucklanders identified as Asian, and the city is home to almost two-thirds of New Zealand’s Asian population. For property investors, this means Auckland’s housing, retail, and commercial markets will increasingly reflect the needs of a diverse, globally connected community.
The global exodus
While much attention is paid to movement within New Zealand, Davidson argued the real story is outward migration. Significant numbers of New Zealanders continue to seek opportunities overseas, a trend that places even more weight on immigration policy as the engine of future population growth.
What it means for property
So, what do these shifts mean for the property sector? Davidson’s presentation offered several key insights:
- Housing typologies will change: With more single-person and couple-only households, demand for smaller, adaptable homes will rise. Retirement villages and aged-care facilities will also need to expand rapidly to serve the growing elderly population.
- Workforce diversity will shape cities: Developers and employers alike must prepare for a younger, more diverse workforce, particularly in urban centres. Culturally inclusive design and community spaces will become essential.
- Regional risk, urban opportunity: As some towns hollow out, investment in those areas becomes riskier. Conversely, Auckland – and to a lesser extent Wellington, Christchurch, and Hamilton – will concentrate population, capital, and cultural influence.
- Ageing infrastructure needs rethink: With an older population, accessibility and age-friendly design will no longer be optional. Properties that fail to accommodate this shift risk obsolescence.
- Flexibility is key: Whether in residential, commercial, or industrial property, the volatility of demographic change means adaptable design and long-term planning will separate winners from losers.
Looking ahead
Quoting Yogi Berra, Davidson reminded the audience: “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” Yet the broad outlines are clear. New Zealand is entering a period of demographic change without precedent in its history.
For property leaders, the challenge is not just to respond, but to anticipate. As Davidson put it, we are no longer in Kansas. The future will not look like the past – and those who adapt early will be best placed to thrive.