National Construction Pipeline Report 2019
The National Construction Pipeline Report 2019 (the report) was commissioned by the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) and jointly prepared by BRANZ and Pacifecon (NZ) Ltd (Pacifecon).
The report provides a forward view of national building and construction activity over a six-year period through to the end of the 2024.
It includes national and regional breakdowns of actual and forecast residential building, non-residential building and infrastructure activity.
The report gives the construction and building sector valuable information to help it plan for future demand.
Construction activity growth is forecast to continue through to 2021
This year’s report returns to forecasting a peak in total construction value at $43b in 2021. This has been driven by an anticipated levelling out of residential activity from 2020 onwards as well as a tailing off of non-residential activity in 2021.
Residential activity in Auckland is forecast to continue to grow
Nationally, residential activity is forecast to level out from 2020 onwards. However, Auckland bucks this trend, with strong growth in residential activity forecast throughout the forecast period. Last year, the value of residential activity in Auckland was $8.8b. This is forecast to reach $12.2b by the end of the forecast period, 39% above 2018 levels.
Non-residential building activity is forecast to peak in 2021
Non-residential activity is forecast to peak in 2021 at just over $9b, an increase of 3.7% over current levels. Activity is then forecast to fall away, falling 20% from the 2021 peak by the end of the forecast period to $7.2b.
Infrastructure activity is forecast to overtake non-residential activity by 2023
Infrastructure activity has not exceeded non-residential activity since 2013. Sustained growth in infrastructure activity combined with a decrease in non-residential activity has led to infrastructure activity forecast to overtake non-residential activity by 2023.
In the regions
All the regions except Canterbury saw growth in total construction in 2018. The Auckland region saw the strongest growth, up 13% on the previous year. Wellington experienced 6% growth, Waikato/Bay of Plenty 5% and Rest of New Zealand saw just 1% growth in total construction. Canterbury decreased total construction activity by 9%, which follows an 11% decrease in 2017.
Throughout the forecast period, all the regions (except Canterbury) are expected to continue to grow. Auckland in particular is expected to see strong growth at 22%. Waikato/Bay of Plenty is forecast to grow by 13%, and Wellington and Rest of New Zealand are both expected to grow by 3% over the period to 2024. Canterbury is forecast to reduce a further 22% to just above $5b in 2024.
Pacifecon is a New Zealand business with a wealth of knowledge on national construction. For over 30 years Pacifecon have provided researched information on planned commercial, residential and infrastructure projects.
This research allows their clients to understand the market, monitor opportunities and build key relationships.